Crop forecast 2017
Our own farm: 2017 crop forecast is still difficult to make. Our farmers report extremely good flower set, however it will depend on rains in October and November whether this translates into a bigger crop.
The Maximacs crop estimates for 2016 are around 20% down on 2015. However the full Southern African crop is down 35%. This is exclusively due to the drought, and a heatwave during the critical flowering period.
The South African crop:
The Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC) has performed a recent round of data collection with updated crop forecasts from all handlers of macadamia nuts. The updated forecast for the 2016 season is 36000 tonnes of nut in shell (NIS; measured at 1.5% kernel moisture content). This is approximately 35% lower than the 2015 crop of 46000 tonnes NIS. In February a forecast of 43 000 tonnes NIS was reported for the 2016 season.
The handlers and processors have revised their forecasts and all indications are that the drought has affected the industry more severely than initially anticipated. Many role players in the industry have indicated a 20% decline in production compared to the 2015 season, and reports of up to 50% lower production in some areas. According to Walter Giuricich, Chairman of SAMAC, the reason for the lower volumes could be a result of higher nut drop and the fact that many nuts are smaller than usual with thicker shells due to the hot and dry weather conditions. There is a concern that if the current dry weather conditions prevail, the 2017 crop will also be affected.
Country Declared Annual Tonnage At Moisture Adjusted to 1.5% Real Contribution
South Africa 42,000t 1.50% 42,000 31%
Australia 39,000t 15.00% 33,735t 25%
USA 22,250t 10.00% 20,359t 15%
Kenya 19,750t 20.00% 16,096t 12%
Guatemala 7,290t 10.00% 6,670t 5%
Malawi 5,222t 15.00% 4,517t 3%
Brazil 4,420t 15.00% 3,823t 3%
China 3,000t 10.00% 2,745t 2%
Columbia 1,270t 10.00% 1,162t 1%
New Zealand 1,000t 1.50% 1,000t 1%
Paraguay 300t 1.50% 300t 0%
Others 4,000t 1.50% 4,000t 1%
146,502t 133,408t 100%